Long-term projections of soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems under climate change.

Long-term projections of soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems under climate change indicate a complex and dynamic relationship. Rising temperatures are expected to decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks by 9.1% to 19.9% across different management scenarios, leading to net SOC loss even under regenerative farming practices. However, certain strategies can help mitigate these losses.

Key Findings:

• Afforestation: Converting farmland to old-growth forest is a promising approach, potentially increasing statewide SOC stocks by up to 4.5 Mt by the end of the century.
• Regenerative Agriculture: Practices like rotational grazing can maintain or slightly increase SOC stocks, but may not fully offset climate-driven losses.
• Spatial Variability: SOC stock changes vary significantly across ecoregions, emphasizing the need for region-specific land management strategies.

Effective Strategies:

• Sustainable Forest Management: Practices like selective logging, reforestation, and maintaining biodiversity can enhance carbon retention and promote ecosystem resilience.
• Soil Conservation: Protecting soil health through sustainable land use and management practices is crucial for maintaining SOC stocks.
• Climate-Smart Agriculture: Implementing climate-resilient agricultural practices can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on SOC sequestration ¹.

Future Research Directions:

• Ecosystem Carbon Studies: Continued research on ecosystem carbon sequestration under climate change can inform effective land management strategies.
• Spatial-Temporal Variations: Understanding spatial-temporal variations in forest carbon storage can help develop targeted conservation efforts ² ³.

Overall, while climate change poses challenges to soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems, targeted strategies and sustainable practices can help mitigate these impacts and promote long-term carbon storage.